The Effects of Demographic Dynamics on Economic Growth in EU Economies: a Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach

This study estimates the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth, with a focus working-age population and life expectancy in 19 European Union economies for 1970–2020 2020–2050, using panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model as analytical methodology. The main findings are follows. First, PVAR estimation identifies positive growth share extension growth. Second, contribution ratio to past bonus periods is approximately 15% average this study, which comparable ratios found previous studies. Third, projection 2020–2050 shows that magnitude negative effect annual due onus −0.385 among all sample economies. policy implication EU have already entered phase transition need mitigate decline share.